The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) was established in May 2000 and has since shaped U.S.-African trade relations for the past 25 years. The agreement which is set to expire in September 2025, is a non-reciprocal preferential trade programme that provides eligible African exports duty-free access to the US market. The U.S Trade Representative (2024) reported the 2023 U.S imports under the agreement totaled $9.7 billion, consisting of approximately $4.2 billion in crude oil and $5.5 billion in other products including apparel and agricultural products. According to the International Labour Organization (2024), the eligibility requirements of AGOA which includes addressing labour and human rights provisions such as minimum wage, the right of association, the right to organize a collective bargain, and forced labour amongst others shows the wide-reaching implications beyond the economic benefits for African countries.  

Despite a bipartisan sponsor of legislation to extend the agreement until 2041 led by U.S senators Chris Coons and James Risch (Makini Brice, 2024), recent U.S tariffs on goods from African countries are shaking the very foundation of the trade agreement, raising critical questions about it’s future and impact on African economies.

New Tariffs and Their Implications 

The U.S. government has imposed varied levels of tariffs on African countries based on U.S. trade interests and the concentration of Chinese manufacturing operations in these countries. Some of the hardest hit countries are Lesotho with 50%, Angola with 32%, Madagascar with 47%, Libya with 31%, Botswana with 37%, and South Africa with 30%. These tariffs raise concerns about future investments, trade flows, and rising supply chain costs in Africa.  

The tariffs are part of President Donald Trump’s declaration of “economic independence” and indirectly appear targeted at China, but they also pose significant threats to African countries that export products to the U.S. market, with rippling effects on employment opportunities and public revenue. Experts and critics argue that these tariffs will likely increase global inflation and worsen the situation for countries already battling economic hardships (Viner, 2025).  

AGOA Suspensions  

Before the imposition of these new tariffs, the U.S. government had earlier suspended some African countries from eligibility due to political instability, human rights concerns, and failure to establish a rule of law (Seyoum, 2023). The suspended countries include Niger, Uganda, Gabon, and the Central African Republic which took effect from January 2024.  

The Future of AGOA and Africa’s Response

The future of AGOA remains uncertain in light of these developments. In response, African countries are expected to focus more on intra-regional trade and minimize exposure to the shifting policies and strategies of external trade partners. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a good opportunity to boost regional trade and integration by establishing self-sustaining supply chains and economic blocs within the continent.  

Conclusion: What is Next for African Supply Chains? 

Given these changes in U.S. foreign trade policy, supply chain leaders and policymakers in Africa must implement strategies to mitigate the undesired effects by exploring alternative partnerships through market diversification. Developing resilient supply chains continues to remain pivotal to the long-term survival of businesses and economies. This is a call to action to remain ahead of global policy shifts and respond effectively to the evolving dynamics of global trade. 

References

Makini Brice. (2024, April 11). US senators introduce bill to renew Africa trade pact through 2041. From Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-senators-will-introduce-bill-renew-africa-trade-pact-through-2041-2024-04-11/

The U.S Trade Representative. (2024). 2024 Biennial Report On The Implementation Of The African Growth And Opportunity ACT. Washington: Executive Office of the President of the United States.

International Labour Organization . (2024, July 24). AGOA Reauthorization 2025: Policies to Promote Fair Trade and Sustainable Economic Development. From International Labour Organization : https://www.ilo.org/resource/news/agoa-reauthorization-2025-policies-promote-fair-trade-and-sustainable

Viner, K. (2025, April 3). Asian countries riven by war and disaster face some of steepest Trump tariffs. From The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-us-administration-countries-biggest-rates-china-myanmar-mandalay

Seyoum, L. (2023, November 11). Why Did the US Expel Four Nations From Its Africa Trade Program? From VOA Africa: https://www.voaafrica.com/a/why-did-the-us-expel-four-nations-from-its-africa-trade-program-/7345418.html

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